Many questions are asked about how long Toastmasters clubs tend to live, and what kinds of clubs live longer. I’ve compared a 2009 global club roster to a 2019 global club roster to put some numbers on this topic.
32.1% of all clubs in 2009 are gone in 2019, which is about 3% a year (not counting new clubs chartering in that ten years). Company clubs, clubs with specific membership criteria (like being an employee) were far more likely to dissolve. Over half of the clubs 0-3 years old in 2009 had dissolved by 2019. Almost 20% of the 2009 company clubs still around in 2019 had switched to being a community club.
By type of club
Toastmasters classifies all clubs into eight types (open vs. membership criteria is a separate metric). Company clubs are far more likely to have dissolved than community clubs.
- 61% of all clubs in 2009 were community, and of those, 21.5% were gone after ten years.
- 28% were company, and of those, 52.6% were gone (2.4 times the rate of community clubs).
- 4.3% were government, and of those, 35% were gone.
- Other types are other/specialized, college, correctional institution (prison), church, and military, but in total, they only add up to the remaining 6%.
By open or membership criteria
Toastmasters separately classifies all clubs into either open, or “group specific”, membership criteria (like is commonly found in company-sponsored clubs). It is a separate field though, so you can have a “closed community club” or an “open company club”, even though those don’t seem to make much sense to me.
- 70% of all clubs in 2009 were open, and of those, 24% were gone after ten years.
- 30% were group specific, and of those, 51% were gone.
By club officer terms
Clubs are also grouped into either annual or semiannual terms for the officers. Only weekly clubs can (optionally) have semiannual terms; all other clubs must have annual terms. This was not a factor in predicting whether a club was likely to close, with nearly identical data for both types.
- 83% of all clubs in 2009 have annual officer terms, and of those, 32% were gone after ten years.
- 17% have semiannual terms, and of those, 32% were gone.
By age
Based on their ages in 2009, the clubs most likely to close were the youngest. Clubs that were less than three years old as of 2009 were 53% likely to have dissolved by 2019. Only 17% of clubs at least 20 years old in 2009 had dissolved by 2019. Clubs under five years old in 2009 accounted for 52% of all the clubs gone by 2019.
Sadly, this ten-year period saw six clubs of over 70-82 years age (as of 2009) dissolve, including club #3-Los Angeles Toastmasters, founded in June 1927.
- 0-1 year old in 2009: 55% dissolved by 2019.
- 1-3 years old: 52%
- 3-5 years old: 44%
- 5-10 years old: 33%
- 10-20 years old: 23%
- 20-30 years old: 20%
- 20-50 years old: 13%
- 70+ years old: 11%
Other interesting data
The average club age today is 15.7 years old. The median club age (half older, half younger) is 9.4 years old. Of the clubs that dissolved from 2009 over the next ten years, they were on average 9.3 years old in 2009, and the median was 4.5 years in 2009 (they were generally quite young).
Changing club types
Clubs show an interesting history of changing types, e.g., from company clubs to community (or vice versa).
- For clubs identified as a company club in 2009 (and still around in 2019), 19.9% of them switched to community clubs by 2019 (326 out of 1,636). Another 2.6% had switched to some other type; 1.2% (19) of them had switched to government agency.
- For clubs identified as community clubs in 2009, just 1.7% (101) of them had switched to another type, 0.8% to company, 0.4% to other/specialized.
- For clubs identified as aligned with a government agency in 2009 (345 in total), 15.7% (54) had switched to community by 2019.
- For clubs identified as “other/specialized” in 2009 (206 in total), 37.4% had switched to community by 2019.
Trends by district and country
Some districts and some countries do far better at retaining clubs (like D76-Japan), while others do much worse (perhaps due to short-term conditions, like natural catastrophes).
The sun comes up every day.
Every day 31 people are murdered in Chicago.
It isn’t a logical inference to conclude that the sun causes the murders 31 people in Chicago.
While these statistics are marginally interesting they tell us nothing meaningfully from which to draw a conclusion let alone a plan of action to stop the hemorrhaging.
We can take these results and draft a step two study which would tell us WHY these Clubs went down. What was the value that they were looking for (sic). What value, or lack thereof, were the members recieving when the Clubs dissolved? And Why?
This statistical report seems to be in the infancy of a deeper study about the sustainability of the Toastmasters product. Are we effectively meeting a need in society? And deeper still, “what is our WHY?”
The answer to that is going to take more work.
Fascinating and thorough as always!
1. Clubs need support through five years; clubs older than five years are more prone to failure. It may be worth having a “young club” mentorship programme.
2. in our district we actively encourage corporate clubs to convert to community clubs after a time. Interest often wanes in corporates. We also sell the benefits and encourage corporate clubs to always have open membership. Consequently some of our most successful community clubs Are former corporate clubs.
3. It shows how data-driven the DIstinguished District programme is. 3% a year seems to be the attrition rate. Therefore we need to aim at 3% a year growth just to stand still.
Excellent, informative and actionable information as always Mike. Thank you!
This makes total sense. Corporate (and Government)-based Clubs largely depend on the sponsoring corporation’s support. Also, they tend to have a sponsoring member who is a booster of Toastmasters. If either the corporation withdraws support or the booster leaves the corporation, the Club could be in trouble.
To prevent that, Districts need to provide the Club with lots of support so that once the sponsoring member moves on to other things, the Club has a base of strong members who can keep it going.
The type of company clubs often determine their own sustainability. Community-like corporate clubs usually live longer than company owned corporate clubs. A kind of DNA determines the type of corporate club.